Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1c1…81fe politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$9
world 6% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 8 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 8 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.1%
all 8 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -11.1%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.7%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $125 −$4 -3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $132 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 21 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $62 −$3 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 19 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 77¢ $76 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 78¢ $78 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 2h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 86¢ $85 6h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $86 6h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 90¢ $90 12h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $91 12h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 22¢ $21 14h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 14h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes $0 27h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 85¢ $45 27h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $46 27h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 31h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 99¢ $99 38h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 99¢ $99 38h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 60¢ $59 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 62¢ $62 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $36 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $5 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records