trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $1,641 | $6 | −$1,635 (-100%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 66¢ | 84¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+27%) |
| Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $130 | $0 | −$130 (-100%) |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | Nuggets | 8¢ | 0¢ | $12,000 | $0 | −$12,000 (-100%) |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $679 | $0 | −$679 (-100%) |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $4,379 | $0 | −$4,379 (-100%) |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $29,449 | $0 | −$29,449 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 v | Jun 12 | $0 | −$30 | -15361% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 09 | $5,756 | +$1,812 | +32% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 15 | $99,021 | +$22,909 | +23% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | May 05 | $2,732 | −$630 | -23% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026? | May 05 | $4,379 | −$4,379 | -100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | May 04 | $40,563 | −$29,140 | -72% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 04 | $9,455 | +$82 | +1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? | May 04 | $32,400 | +$900 | +3% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? | May 03 | $1,480 | +$67 | +4% |
| Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? | May 02 | $130 | −$130 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | May 01 | $166 | +$85 | +51% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 01 | $101,187 | +$8,118 | +8% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1? | May 01 | $782 | +$22 | +3% |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1? | May 01 | $107 | +$1 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 26 | $89,241 | +$21,786 | +24% |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | Apr 24 | $12,000 | −$12,000 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +31.5% | +19.0% | 100% | 100% | +19.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +27.3% | +15.2% | 100% | 100% | +11.8% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -22.7% | -30.1% | 67% | 27% | -7.3% |
| all | 16 | -27.6% | -34.5% | 62% | 25% | -7.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -34.5% | 25% | -7.3% |
| 10% | -40.7% | 25% | -16.2% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -46.5% | 6% | -24.3% |
| 20% | -51.7% | 6% | -31.7% |