Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F1 0xf1bf…55b4 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 79% −$14
politics 11% −$6
other 6% −$18
sports 2% +$22
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +48.4% +34.3% 33% 33% +8.7%
≤30d 16 +15.3% +4.3% 25% 12% -6.8%
≤90d 42 +3.4% -6.4% 26% 17% -9.2%
all 55 +2.5% -7.3% 25% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 13% -9.6%
10% -16.1% 13% -18.2%
15% -24.2% 13% -26.1%
20% -31.7% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage598d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +146%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $77 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $146 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $6 +$7 +101%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $65 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $66 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $5 +$5 +86%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $12 +$6 +48%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 +$6 +104%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $9 +$10 +105%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-02? Apr 06 $19 +$10 +55%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $21 $0 +2%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $43 +$1 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? Mar 05 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $80 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 09 $13,567 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $3 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 20 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 57m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $4 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 10d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 20d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $13 21d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $6 27d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 28d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $29 29d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 29d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.18 · official $52.18 (match) · 229 history records