Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F1 0xf1be…efab world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$1
other 20% $0
politics 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 9 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage90d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 16 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? Jun 04 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 09 $93 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Mar 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Mar 21 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 19 $95 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Mar 19 $190 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 89¢ $93 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 89¢ $93 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $92 19h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $92 12d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $92 12d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $92 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 97¢ $93 69d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $93 69d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $93 86d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $93 86d
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $93 87d
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $93 87d
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? SELL No 94¢ $93 87d
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? BUY No 95¢ $94 87d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL Yes 96¢ $94 89d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 96¢ $95 89d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $95 89d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $95 89d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $95 89d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $95 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records