Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1bc…e8fb other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$1
world 21% −$1
politics 21% $0
economics 7% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.2% -8.4% 20% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 14 -2.6% -11.9% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -2.6% -11.9% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 51 -1.0% -10.4% 27% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage330d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $7 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $3 $0 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -23%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $38 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $77 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $1 $0 -20%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 17 $42 $0 -1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 04 $4 $0 -3%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 02 $2 $0 +11%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Aug 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $2 $0 -2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $53 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $58 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 30 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $44 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $44 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $1 11h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $3 11h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 10¢ $4 14h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $15 17h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 8¢ $14 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $36 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $8 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $25 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $33 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.39 · official $1.39 (match) · 168 history records