Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:14:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1b4…e66a sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 559d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$42 (+7%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 26L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$42
politics 11% $0
other 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -2.1% -11.4% 4% 4% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 4% -2.8%
10% -19.9% 4% -12.1%
15% -27.6% 4% -20.6%
20% -34.7% 4% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$0 · ×1775.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×136.58 per $1 lost it wins $136.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

559d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage559d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Sparta Prague win the UEFA Champions League? Aug 23 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jul 14 $1 $0 +0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Jul 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? May 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $1 $0 -2%
Kings vs. Utah Apr 04 $49 +$42 +85%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 26 $0 $0 -40%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 03 $274 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Dec 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 03 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 50m
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 50m
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 23d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 23d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $11 60d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $11 60d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 61d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 61d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 78d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 82d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $9 96d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $9 96d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 121d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 121d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $10 145d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $10 145d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 183d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 183d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 216d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 216d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 235d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 235d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $10 267d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $10 267d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 295d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 295d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 295d
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? SELL Yes $0 335d
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 335d
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? BUY Yes $1 335d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records