Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F1 0xf1b4…f659 crypto 179 markets active 5h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$260 (-10%) realized −$245 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%46W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day72.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days−$564
14 days−$360
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$478
other 10% −$217
sports 2% +$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -34.7% -41.0% 22% 20% -33.2%
≤30d 167 -27.1% -34.0% 28% 25% -22.1%
≤90d 167 -27.1% -34.0% 28% 25% -22.1%
all 167 -27.1% -34.0% 28% 25% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.0% 25% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -40.3% 22% -29.5%
15% -46.1% 14% -36.3%
20% -51.4% 13% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$11 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$245
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses46 / 121
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)167 / 179
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day72.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $24 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $55 −$53 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$104 +1442%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +50%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +81%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 34h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 34h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 35h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 35h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 36h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 36h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.16 · official $59.08 (match) · 649 history records