Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1b2…22c5 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -15.6%
≤30d 8 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -15.6%
≤90d 29 +0.9% -8.7% 45% 38% -13.6%
all 29 +0.9% -8.7% 45% 38% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 38% -13.6%
10% -17.4% 31% -21.9%
15% -25.4% 21% -29.5%
20% -32.7% 10% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage44d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$1 -5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$19 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 03 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 03 $16 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 03 $27 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 03 $5 +$7 +139%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 03 $9 −$5 -52%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 03 $6 −$6 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 03 $5 +$23 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 03 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 03 $29 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 03 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 03 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 03 $12 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 03 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 03 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 03 $32 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 03 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 03 $16 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 03 $20 −$5 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $23 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records