Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1ac…16a9 other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$3
other 23% +$1
politics 14% $0
sports 10% −$1
crypto 6% $0
finance 4% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 +8.6% -1.8% 33% 17% -8.8%
all 32 +2.0% -7.7% 25% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 6% -9.2%
10% -16.6% 6% -17.9%
15% -24.6% 6% -25.8%
20% -32.0% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage300d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $47 −$1 -2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $101 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $44 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $7 +$3 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $34 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 09 $35 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5? Sep 06 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Polish preside Sep 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 02 $1 $0 -8%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $4 −$1 -15%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $2 $0 -11%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $3 $0 -6%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $50 6m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $46 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $2 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $45 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $6 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $45 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $50 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $51 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $40 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $29 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $33 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $50 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $30 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.49 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records