Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1ab…4785 other 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%8W / 216L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$38
sports 24% −$20
politics 7% −$5
culture 6% −$5
economics 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 81 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 224 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses8 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)224 / 224
History coverage124d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 224 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $356 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $216 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $250 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $714 −$2 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $129 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $241 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $192 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $259 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $260 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $146 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $626 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $332 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $197 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $335 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $841 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $187 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $926 −$2 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $363 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $389 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $141 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $627 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $468 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $375 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $180 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 2h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 4h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 7h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 8h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 14h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 16h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 16h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 18h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 19h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 21h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 23h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 24h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 25h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 26h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 28h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 30h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 32h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 34h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $52 44h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $52 46h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $52 47h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $42 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1256 history records