Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1a7…8035 sports 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%49W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$32
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$36
other 14% +$16
world 12% −$7
politics 7% −$7
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -24.7% -31.9% 31% 21% -20.4%
≤30d 45 -20.4% -28.0% 40% 31% -20.3%
≤90d 106 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 41% -13.6%
all 106 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 41% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 41% -13.6%
10% -20.8% 39% -21.9%
15% -28.5% 32% -29.4%
20% -35.5% 26% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses49 / 57
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage66d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 53¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$12 +80%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -34%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +30%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $30 −$5 -17%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $41 −$5 -13%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 10 $5 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $15 −$5 -33%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 −$5 -20%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$1 -22%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $5 +$8 +156%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$8 +162%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 +$1 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $5 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $5 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $5 +$6 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $25 −$5 -20%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $5 +$3 +59%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $5 +$4 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 04 $5 $0 -7%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $5 +$2 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers May 06 $2 +$3 +140%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Apr 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will US Boulogne Côte d'Opale win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $4 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 24¢ $13 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $14 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $5 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 35¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $5 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 67¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 78¢ $7 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $5 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $5 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $5 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.30 · official $5.30 (match) · 288 history records