Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf1a3…0781
weather · 69 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$74 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$76 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses18 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage13d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$58
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 14? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) New York Mets 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 27¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 6? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5 Over 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) San Diego Padres 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 5? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Colorado Rockies 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Over 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Over 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 Over 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5 Over 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Over 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Milwaukee Brewers 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Over 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Milwaukee Brewers 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Over 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 +$8 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -82%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $2 −$1 -70%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$5 +155%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 −$2 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 +$5 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$8 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -69%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$5 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +149%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 08 $11 −$8 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $4 +$7 +166%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 07 $7 −$5 -75%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 06 $4 −$4 -91%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $0 $0 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $7 −$6 -91%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 06 $4 −$2 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $3 +$4 +114%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 06 $3 +$3 +104%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $4 +$9 +233%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 06 $4 +$5 +122%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 06 $4 +$7 +170%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $3 +$3 +88%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 64% −$41
sports 36% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 23¢ $1 9m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 23¢ $1 15m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 23¢ $2 22m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 20¢ $1 29m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 23¢ $2 36m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 23¢ $2 38m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 21¢ $2 45m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 17¢ $3 52m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 23¢ $3 58m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 SELL Over 4¢ $1 2d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 2d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 13¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -32.4% -38.9% 22% 22% -49.5%
≤30d 68 -28.4% -35.2% 26% 26% -38.1%
≤90d 68 -28.4% -35.2% 26% 26% -38.1%
all 68 -28.4% -35.2% 26% 26% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 26% -38.1%
10% -41.4% 26% -44.0%
15% -47.1% 22% -49.4%
20% -52.3% 22% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.16 · official $50.16 (match) · 171 history records