Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf1a3…f17b
crypto · 768 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$487 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$467 · open +$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$578
Realized+$467
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses499 / 255
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions13
Markets (closed)754 / 768
History coverage87d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 13 History 754 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$26
14 days+$23
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Is Earth flat? No 97¢ 97¢ $141 $141 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 84¢ $93 $85 −$8 (-9%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 64¢ $37 $49 +$11 (+30%)
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? No 92¢ 94¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? No 90¢ 91¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 62¢ $38 $30 −$8 (-21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 74¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+18%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $25 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 54¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+31%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $12 −$6 -48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $117 +$2 +2%
Set Handicap: Sakkari (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Jun 08 $8 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $34 +$10 +29%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $388 +$10 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $278 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $14 +$9 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $40 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 05 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 04 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 04 $17 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 04 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 04 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,881 −$2 -0%
Tyler: Fajing Sun vs Andre Ilagan Jun 03 $10 +$5 +48%
Foggia: Andreea Prisacariu vs Nika Radisic Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Makarska: Ana Konjuh vs Dominika Salkova Jun 02 $4 +$1 +14%
Foggia: Tatiana Prozorova vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 02 $6 +$4 +67%
Birmingham: Mark Lajal vs Leandro Riedi Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 01 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 31 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 31 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 31 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $3 +$4 +112%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $17 −$15 -91%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $17 +$4 +21%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants May 31 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 30 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 30 $8 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 67% +$333
world 20% +$79
sports 6% −$28
other 4% +$91
politics 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 41¢ $6 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 40¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $10 2h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 94¢ $14 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 24¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 16h
Is Earth flat? BUY No 97¢ $10 17h
Is Earth flat? BUY No 97¢ $19 17h
Is Earth flat? BUY No 97¢ $15 17h
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? BUY No 92¢ $21 17h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 18h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 25h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 25h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $19 25h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $15 25h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $19 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 28h
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? BUY No 93¢ $12 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -22.5% -29.9% 50% 25% -6.8%
≤30d 171 +3.8% -6.1% 67% 46% -10.0%
≤90d 754 +8.1% -2.2% 66% 55% -5.7%
all 754 +8.1% -2.2% 66% 55% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 55% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 43% -14.8%
15% -20.1% 34% -23.0%
20% -27.9% 24% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $577.62 · official $579.80 (match) · 3500 history records