Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F1 0xf19f…8d44 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$32 (-16%) realized −$31 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day4.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-9.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+0.4%	-9.1%	25%	25%	-65.1%
≤30d	4	+0.4%	-9.1%	25%	25%	-65.1%
≤90d	4	+0.4%	-9.1%	25%	25%	-65.1%
all	4	+0.4%	-9.1%	25%	25%	-65.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.1%	25%	-65.1%
10%	-17.8%	25%	-68.4%
15%	-25.8%	25%	-71.5%
20%	-33.0%	25%	-74.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -61% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.29 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$149

Realized−$31

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day4.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$5	−$3	-61%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5	+$13	+262%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$30	−$30	-99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$13	−$13	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	7h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$30	25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$13	39h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.90 · official $148.90 (match) · 8 history records