Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf19f…c3aa other 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%88W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$22
crypto 20% −$1
economics 8% $0
tech 1% −$1
politics 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 91 -2.1% -11.4% 97% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% -10.4%
10% -19.9% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses88 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage470d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $51 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? Apr 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $4 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 28 $42 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in March 2026? Mar 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 08 $46 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Mar 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026? Feb 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 5? Feb 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Feb 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? Jan 31 $45 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 07 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 31? Jan 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 07 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 16? Dec 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 31 $34 +$1 +2%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 7? Dec 16 $1 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Dec 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63-64°F on No Dec 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of November 202 Dec 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 26? Dec 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Dec 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on November 22? Nov 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or higher on Nov Nov 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $240 November 10-16? Nov 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 22 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.90 on October 27? Nov 14 $1 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tencent have the second best AI model on October 31? Nov 14 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 8d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 10d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 13d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 20d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 23d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 32d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 35d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 39d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 52d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 59d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 70d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 76d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 80d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 85d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $4 85d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 97d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 101d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 105d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 124d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $44 132d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 132d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $46 136d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 152d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 161d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $29 168d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 100¢ $5 168d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 168d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY No 98¢ $34 183d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.08 · official $51.08 (match) · 181 history records