trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 83¢ | 83¢ | $40 | $40 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $32 | −$1 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $39 | −$5 | -13% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $42 | +$13 | +32% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $2 | $0 | -9% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 07 | $33 | −$1 | -2% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $73 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 25 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday? | Jun 08 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 08 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? | Mar 20 | $2 | −$1 | -33% |
| Epstein phonebook only document released today? | Mar 04 | $7 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Feb 27 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Portland vs. St. Mary's | Feb 20 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 33% | 17% | -5.8% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 43% | 14% | -6.8% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 43% | 14% | -6.8% |
| all | 16 | -7.0% | -15.8% | 62% | 6% | -8.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.8% | 6% | -8.1% |
| 10% | -23.9% | 6% | -16.9% |
| 15% | -31.2% | 0% | -24.9% |
| 20% | -38.0% | 0% | -32.3% |