Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F1 0xf19c…a6de sports 374 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$313 (-1%) realized −$277 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate71%265W / 108L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$64
14 days−$43
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$19
other 33% −$177
finance 6% +$39
crypto 6% −$145
politics 3% −$62
world 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -6.4% -15.3% 71% 25% -11.5%
≤30d 106 -4.1% -13.3% 76% 16% -10.0%
≤90d 291 -2.1% -11.4% 76% 14% -10.0%
all 373 -5.6% -14.6% 71% 15% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 15% -10.3%
10% -22.7% 8% -18.9%
15% -30.2% 4% -26.7%
20% -37.0% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$277
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses265 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions1
Markets (closed)373 / 374
History coverage208d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 58¢ 42¢ $124 $88 −$36 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $95 +$5 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $41 +$8 +20%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $88 +$10 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $151 −$22 -14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $73 +$4 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $50 −$2 -3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $100 −$3 -3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $133 +$5 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$7 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 +$9 +19%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $500 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $94 +$6 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$14 +28%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? Jun 16 $153 +$16 +10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $400 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $301 +$12 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 −$120 -79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $202 −$2 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $94 +$7 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $160 +$3 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +22%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $22 +$6 +25%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $30 +$5 +16%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $101 +$3 +3%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $201 +$8 +4%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $20 −$17 -85%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $40 −$36 -90%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +24%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $3 +$1 +46%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $100 $0 -0%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $14 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 87¢ $35 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $95 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 87¢ $35 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 98¢ $49 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $41 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $11 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $87 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $88 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $77 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $73 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 23h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? SELL No 70¢ $49 23h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? BUY No 71¢ $50 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 94¢ $52 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 84¢ $46 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 86¢ $132 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 86¢ $6 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $133 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 98¢ $60 42h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 45h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 45h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $500 46h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 46h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $500 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.20 · official $88.20 (match) · 1683 history records