trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -15.1% | -23.2% | 33% | 33% | -1.8% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -13.3% | -21.5% | 57% | 29% | -5.6% |
| ≤90d | 51 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 65% | 47% | -4.2% |
| all | 135 | -1.8% | -11.1% | 65% | 56% | -7.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.1% | 56% | -7.6% |
| 10% | -19.6% | 42% | -16.4% |
| 15% | -27.4% | 31% | -24.5% |
| 20% | -34.5% | 27% | -31.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $503 | $500 | −$4 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 85¢ | 84¢ | $85 | $84 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $79 | $78 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $453 | +$247 | +55% |
| Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? | Jun 22 | $165 | −$161 | -98% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | Jun 22 | $399 | $0 | -0% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 02 | $65 | −$64 | -99% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | Jun 02 | $40 | +$1 | +2% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Jun 02 | $61 | +$29 | +48% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 27 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Croatia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | May 20 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | May 20 | $298 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Norway win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | May 20 | $300 | +$1 | +0% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 222.5 | Apr 24 | $11 | −$11 | -99% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 24 | $42 | +$8 | +20% |
| Hornets vs. Knicks | Apr 19 | $43 | +$7 | +16% |
| Hornets vs. Magic | Apr 17 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Spread: Celtics (-16.5) | Apr 12 | $10 | +$10 | +100% |
| Spread: Suns (-2.5) | Apr 12 | $15 | +$15 | +104% |
| Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 10 | $742 | $0 | +0% |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | Apr 10 | $8 | +$2 | +30% |
| Hornets vs. Celtics | Apr 08 | $33 | +$17 | +52% |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5) | Apr 07 | $51 | −$3 | -5% |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 07 | $662 | −$1 | -0% |
| Pistons vs. 76ers | Apr 07 | $28 | +$21 | +73% |
| Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Apr 04 | $699 | −$1 | -0% |
| Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5 | Apr 04 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Raptors vs. Grizzlies | Apr 04 | $440 | +$58 | +13% |
| Timberwolves vs. Pistons | Apr 03 | $210 | +$136 | +65% |
| Hawks vs. Magic | Apr 02 | $24 | +$15 | +62% |
| Pacers vs. Bulls | Apr 01 | $192 | −$190 | -99% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Clippers | Mar 31 | $47 | −$46 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Rockets | Mar 31 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5 | Mar 31 | $3 | +$2 | +84% |
| Celtics vs. Hawks | Mar 31 | $10 | +$9 | +91% |
| Bulls vs. Spurs | Mar 31 | $197 | +$12 | +6% |
| 76ers vs. Heat | Mar 30 | $12 | −$12 | -99% |
| Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5 | Mar 30 | $3 | −$3 | -99% |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 30 | $492 | $0 | -0% |
| Clippers vs. Bucks | Mar 30 | $292 | +$40 | +14% |
| Celtics vs. Hornets | Mar 29 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 29 | $629 | +$1 | +0% |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5) | Mar 29 | $3 | +$3 | +92% |
| Pelicans vs. Raptors | Mar 29 | $44 | +$16 | +35% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 28 | $116 | $0 | +0% |
| Spread: Celtics (-7.5) | Mar 28 | $6 | +$4 | +70% |
| Clippers vs. Pacers | Mar 28 | $23 | +$7 | +30% |
| Heat vs. Cavaliers | Mar 28 | $53 | +$27 | +52% |
| 76ers vs. Hornets | Mar 28 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Spread: Spurs (-19.5) | Mar 28 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Pelicans vs. Pistons | Mar 27 | $32 | +$18 | +54% |
| Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Mar 26 | $85 | +$15 | +18% |
| Raptors vs. Clippers | Mar 26 | $186 | +$114 | +61% |