Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F1 0xf192…6ee2 world 97 markets active 11h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$14,015 (+15%) realized +$13,994 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%54W / 42L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$975per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,018
7 days−$2,178
14 days−$3,190
30 days−$2,173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$168
politics 14% +$3,716
economics 12% +$5,409
other 3% +$3,514
tech 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -14.6% -22.8% 25% 17% -16.2%
≤30d 21 -5.8% -14.7% 48% 33% -14.5%
≤90d 52 +15.8% +4.8% 46% 31% -8.6%
all 96 +20.8% +9.3% 56% 41% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 41% +4.3%
10% -1.2% 27% -5.6%
15% -10.7% 17% -14.8%
20% -19.5% 14% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,013) neutral
Persistence
early +21% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$390 vs −$210 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$2,222
Realized+$13,994
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses54 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage456d
Avg bet$975
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $2,201 $2,222 +$21 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $4,034 +$531 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $7,140 −$1,388 -19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,500 −$49 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $7,975 +$483 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $1,290 −$88 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $610 +$203 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $5,455 −$711 -13%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $1,048 −$627 -60%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $5,635 −$445 -8%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $321 −$81 -25%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 11 $56 −$7 -12%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 07 $529 +$347 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $1,571 −$1,398 -89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $838 +$39 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $2,550 +$375 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,078 −$58 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $901 +$149 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 25 $2,073 +$493 +24%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 23 $591 +$16 +3%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 18 $202 +$42 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $325 +$82 +25%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $1,662 +$256 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $280 +$58 +21%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 02 $512 +$180 +35%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 30 $41 −$2 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $1,912 +$1,029 +54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $1,617 −$1,192 -74%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $1,194 −$15 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $1,414 −$856 -61%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 18 $690 −$133 -19%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Apr 18 $679 +$88 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 17 $199 −$15 -8%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 17 $454 −$195 -43%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 16 $98 −$86 -88%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 15 $619 −$54 -9%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $316 +$17 +5%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 08 $14 $0 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $218 +$3,287 +1505%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 06 $230 +$40 +17%
Will USD/JPY hit 160 (High) in 2026? Apr 04 $43 −$43 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 04 $90 −$90 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 01 $868 +$19 +2%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 01 $4,835 +$331 +7%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $2,024 −$15 -1%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meet Mar 19 $111 +$42 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 66¢ $331 11h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 62¢ $166 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 62¢ $432 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 63¢ $1,830 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $91 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $35 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $15 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $30 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $7 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $13 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $72 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,222.21 · official $2,222.21 (match) · 831 history records