Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf191…2938 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$640 (+13%) realized +$569 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +133% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +102% what you keep after slip
Net edge+102%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$710per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$120
30 days+$619
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$690
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+110.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +132.6% +110.5% 50% 33% +7.1%
≤90d 6 +132.6% +110.5% 50% 33% +7.1%
all 6 +132.6% +110.5% 50% 33% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +110.5% 33% +7.1%
10% +90.3% 33% -3.2%
15% +71.9% 17% -12.5%
20% +55.1% 17% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +133% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$341 vs −$134 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,630
Realized+$569
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage17d
Avg bet$710
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,559 $1,630 +$71 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$120 -59%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,347 +$388 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $253 −$250 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,471 +$130 +9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$33 -64%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$504 +982%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $127 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $110 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $61 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,629.70 · official $1,629.70 (match) · 48 history records