Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:05:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf18f…7a9c
sports · 1004 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$24 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$353
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses436 / 295
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions285
Markets (closed)731 / 1004
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day251.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 285 History 731 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Seinajoen JK (-2.5) Seinajoen JK 2¢ 50¢ $1 $24 +$23 (+2281%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Yes 47¢ 62¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 63¢ 81¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 35¢ 44¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 82¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 18¢ 39¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+116%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 69¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+111%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 91¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 35¢ 73¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+109%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Under 36¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 76¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Under 43¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 67¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Spread: FC Inter Turku (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +64%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $2 +$2 +82%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +123%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 +$7 +364%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +103%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 61% +$80
other 24% −$88
weather 4% −$5
world 3% −$4
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% −$2
politics 1% +$3
finance 1% −$4
culture 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $1 9m
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 68¢ $1 13m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $2 23m
Spread: Seinajoen JK (-2.5) BUY Seinajoen JK 2¢ $1 38m
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY No 92¢ $1 39m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 83¢ $1 46m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 50m
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1 59m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 75¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 53¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 65¢ $1 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 56¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 60¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu BUY Fire Flux Esports 51¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 55¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 51¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 88¢ $1 2h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY No 28¢ $1 2h
Spread: FC Inter Turku (-1.5) SELL AC Oulu 99¢ $1 2h
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 25¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 88¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 731 +2.5% -7.3% 60% 57% -12.3%
≤30d 731 +2.5% -7.3% 60% 57% -12.3%
≤90d 731 +2.5% -7.3% 60% 57% -12.3%
all 731 +2.5% -7.3% 60% 57% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover251.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 57% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 44% -20.7%
15% -24.3% 36% -28.4%
20% -31.7% 29% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.53 · official $352.55 (match) · 3500 history records