Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf18f…294c politics 340 markets active 1h ago coverage 1246d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 1246d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38,070 (-29%) realized −$36,616 · open −$1,454
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate30%95W / 225L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$5,276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1246d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$16,279
world 18% −$7,053
other 18% +$274
crypto 13% +$5,005
economics 1% +$40
tech 0% +$994
culture 0% −$11
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -11.3% -19.7% 50% 40% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +4.0% -5.9% 41% 35% +67.9%
≤90d 26 +11.0% +0.4% 46% 42% +55.5%
all 320 -13.1% -21.4% 30% 22% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 22% -21.0%
10% -28.9% 18% -28.6%
15% -35.8% 15% -35.5%
20% -42.1% 12% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$437 vs −$256 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1246d coverage
Net worth$5,276
Realized−$36,616
Unrealized−$1,454
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses95 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)320 / 340
History coverage1246d ⚠
Avg bet$386
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 21¢ 16¢ $1,065 $775 −$290 (-27%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $832 $650 −$182 (-22%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $612 $569 −$44 (-7%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No 23¢ 20¢ $563 $488 −$76 (-13%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $529 $405 −$124 (-23%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $390 $375 −$15 (-4%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 74¢ $320 $370 +$50 (+16%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $410 $362 −$47 (-12%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $384 $344 −$40 (-10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $508 $344 −$164 (-32%)
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $192 $205 +$12 (+6%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $150 $156 +$6 (+4%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $149 $107 −$43 (-28%)
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $128 $84 −$44 (-34%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $22 $14 −$8 (-35%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $112 $11 −$101 (-90%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $172 $9 −$162 (-95%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $53 $4 −$49 (-92%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $114 $3 −$110 (-97%)
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $24 $1 −$23 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $143 −$141 -98%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $27 +$15 +56%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $434 +$208 +48%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? Jun 20 $46 −$17 -36%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 20 $105 −$87 -82%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $170 +$105 +62%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 19 $21 +$7 +35%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $174 +$8 +5%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $94 −$83 -89%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $175 −$20 -11%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $207 +$292 +141%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $442 +$1,874 +424%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 02 $52 −$52 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $112 −$46 -41%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 01 $83 −$36 -43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" this week? May 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 16 $170 +$80 +47%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? May 15 $229 +$67 +29%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 15 $234 +$55 +24%
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? May 13 $56 −$19 -34%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? May 12 $81 −$62 -77%
Will Trump say "Regime change" this week? May 12 $1 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $573 +$641 +112%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $4 +$9 +223%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $70 −$68 -98%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? Mar 07 $91 −$43 -47%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Mar 07 $148 −$11 -7%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $305 +$98 +32%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $662 −$392 -59%
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $189 −$159 -84%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $44 −$26 -60%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $142 −$142 -100%
US bank failure by March 31? Jan 08 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Jan 01 $94 −$63 -67%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? Jan 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Venezuela Parlay Jan 01 $62 −$59 -95%
Major U.S. bank bailout in 2025? Jan 01 $327 −$325 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? Dec 29 $62 +$51 +81%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Dec 29 $56 +$83 +149%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 29 $26 +$25 +94%
US bank failure by January 31? Dec 29 $9 +$10 +120%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Dec 28 $12 +$465 +3821%
Biden removed via 25th Amendment? Dec 22 $26 +$47 +184%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 20 $25 +$80 +320%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17? Dec 16 $16 +$5 +32%
Erdoğan out in 2025? Dec 04 $622 −$307 -49%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Dec 04 $5 −$4 -72%
US bank failure by November 30? Dec 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk? Dec 04 $79 −$70 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $105 1h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $146 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $143 16h
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Pennsylvania events? BUY Yes 64¢ $27 21h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $48 2d
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $320 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $108 3d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $29 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $97 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 3d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $424 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $11 3d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $224 3d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 3d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 3d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $31 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $8 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $24 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $17 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,276.40 · official $5,276.40 (match) · 3485 history records