Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf18e…3cd4 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%19W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$9
other 17% +$2
weather 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 19 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,054) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses19 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage188d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 98¢ 97¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 48-49°F on Ap May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on March 23? Apr 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 5°C or below on March 11? Mar 22 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 10 $26 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on February 25? Feb 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 February 2-8? Feb 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 05 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026? Jan 02 $24 +$1 +2%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? Dec 24 $1,062 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on December 23 Dec 23 $1,060 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on December 24 Dec 23 $1,059 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on December 23? Dec 22 $1,056 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 22? Dec 22 $955 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 22 Dec 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 15-21? Dec 21 $1,054 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on December 17? Dec 21 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 35d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 48-49°F on Ap BUY No 100¢ $32 56d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $31 92d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 5°C or below on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $26 103d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 99¢ $26 108d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 115d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on February 25? BUY No 100¢ $26 117d
Will XRP reach $2.20 February 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $25 136d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? BUY No 96¢ $24 170d
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 179d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,062 180d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on December 23 BUY No 100¢ $1,060 180d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on December 24 SELL No 100¢ $65 180d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on December 24 SELL No 100¢ $101 180d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on December 24 SELL No 100¢ $99 180d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on December 24 SELL No 100¢ $92 180d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on December 24 SELL No 100¢ $393 180d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on December 24 SELL No 100¢ $310 180d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on December 24 BUY No 100¢ $1,059 181d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on December 23? SELL No 100¢ $1,059 181d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on December 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,056 181d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 181d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $914 181d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 22 SELL No 100¢ $100 182d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $955 182d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 22 BUY No 100¢ $100 182d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $535 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.43 · official $32.43 (match) · 51 history records