trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 25 | -10.9% | -19.4% | 8% | 0% | -15.9% |
| ≤30d | 25 | -10.9% | -19.4% | 8% | 0% | -15.9% |
| ≤90d | 25 | -10.9% | -19.4% | 8% | 0% | -15.9% |
| all | 25 | -10.9% | -19.4% | 8% | 0% | -15.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -19.4% | 0% | -15.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -27.1% | 0% | -23.9% |
| 15% | -34.1% | 0% | -31.3% |
| 20% | -40.6% | 0% | -38.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | No | 30¢ | 14¢ | $13 | $6 | −$7 (-55%) |
| Will Alex Villanueva win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election? | Yes | 27¢ | 12¢ | $14 | $6 | −$8 (-57%) |
| Will Clay Jenkins win the 2026 Dallas County Judge election? | No | 33¢ | 13¢ | $8 | $3 | −$5 (-61%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28? | Jun 27 | $25 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Matt Orlando win the 2026 Chandler mayoral election? | Jun 27 | $14 | $0 | -3% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | Jun 27 | $22 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? | Jun 27 | $44 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? | Jun 27 | $30 | −$2 | -7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 29? | Jun 27 | $5 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title? | Jun 27 | $31 | −$1 | -3% |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | Jun 27 | $26 | −$5 | -20% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | Jun 27 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? | Jun 27 | $81 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | Jun 27 | $19 | −$2 | -12% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 28? | Jun 27 | $8 | −$3 | -41% |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28? | Jun 27 | $15 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June | Jun 27 | $2 | −$1 | -55% |
| Will Adidas be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champ | Jun 24 | $33 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio | Jun 24 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Switzerland vs Can | Jun 24 | $1 | $0 | -36% |
| Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential | Jun 24 | $31 | −$5 | -16% |
| Will the announcers say "Record" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA | Jun 24 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? | Jun 24 | $24 | −$4 | -15% |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June | Jun 24 | $29 | −$4 | -12% |
| Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico | Jun 24 | $44 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? | Jun 24 | $33 | −$5 | -15% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31? | Jun 24 | $23 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | -5% |