Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F1 0xf18a…e4e5 sports 540 markets active 4d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (471 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,215 (+32%) realized +$7,228 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%290W / 248L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day470.6pace
Fees−$273est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$9
other 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (471 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 +4.1% -5.8% 53% 44% -11.9%
≤30d 538 +1.7% -8.0% 54% 43% -9.6%
≤90d 538 +1.7% -8.0% 54% 43% -9.6%
all 538 +1.7% -8.0% 54% 43% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover470.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 43% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 31% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 22% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 17% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,013
Realized+$7,228
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses290 / 248
Est. fees paid−$273
Open positions3
Markets (closed)538 / 540
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day470.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 43¢ 38¢ $132 $116 −$16 (-12%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 59¢ 62¢ $99 $104 +$5 (+5%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 52¢ $81 $71 −$10 (-12%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Viktorija Golubic 65¢ 100¢ $29 $44 +$16 (+54%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 42¢ 48¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 48¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $106 −$7 -7%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $83 −$58 -70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $37 −$9 -24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $33 −$10 -30%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $11 −$5 -45%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $14 −$13 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $17 +$14 +81%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $12 −$1 -11%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $88 −$48 -54%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $37 +$9 +24%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $61 −$8 -14%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $63 −$30 -48%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $45 −$20 -44%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $64 −$33 -52%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Tomljanovic vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Smith vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Tomljanovic vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Tomljanovic (+1.5) Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Set Handicap: Fearnley (-1.5) vs Smith (+1.5) Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Tatiana Prozorova vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$5 +57%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $28 −$13 -46%
McNally vs. Sierra: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $16 −$1 -3%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $21 −$6 -28%
Medvedev vs. Boogaard: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $8 +$7 +93%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $48 −$33 -69%
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren Jun 12 $18 −$3 -15%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $14 +$1 +8%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $11 +$4 +36%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $21 −$6 -27%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Boogaard (+1.5) Jun 12 $27 −$11 -42%
Darja Vidmanova vs. Lucrezia Stefanini: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +64%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $24 −$8 -34%
Set Handicap: Prozorova (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 12 $7 +$14 +180%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $22 +$8 +35%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $26 +$4 +15%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $31 −$1 -2%
Set Handicap: McNally (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) Jun 12 $25 +$5 +22%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $45 −$15 -33%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 12 $23 +$7 +30%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 12 $27 +$4 +13%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $18 +$12 +68%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $19 +$11 +60%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $49 −$17 -36%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $82 −$48 -59%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $38 −$3 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 78¢ $12 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 85¢ $13 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 79¢ $12 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $7 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 85¢ $13 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 17¢ $3 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 68¢ $10 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 90¢ $14 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 64¢ $5 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $7 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $7 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 56¢ $9 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ $12 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 90¢ $14 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 90¢ $14 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals $1 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $6 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 76¢ $11 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 26¢ $4 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $8 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 37¢ $6 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 36¢ $6 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 83¢ $13 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 30¢ $5 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $10 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 53¢ $8 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $6 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $6 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 51¢ $8 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 42¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,012.72 · official $1,012.72 (match) · 3500 history records