Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf18a…f4e9 other 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%16W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$299
politics 31% +$204
sports 6% +$35
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 +3.1% -6.7% 9% 8% -9.6%
all 114 +1.4% -8.3% 14% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 9% -9.7%
10% -17.1% 7% -18.3%
15% -25.1% 6% -26.2%
20% -32.4% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$4 · ×5.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses16 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage117d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $280 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $250 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $272 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $244 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $278 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $951 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $561 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $304 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 13 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $257 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $257 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 11 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $276 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 10 $261 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $241 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $260 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $217 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $277 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $431 +$215 +50%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $239 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $281 −$281 -100%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 30 $295 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $282 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $220 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $212 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $249 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $240 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $460 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $261 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 16h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 46h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 10d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $40 12d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 15d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 15d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 22d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $272 26d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $244 26d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $244 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $278 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $278 28d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $224 29d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $224 30d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $219 30d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $219 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $238 31d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $238 32d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $209 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.99 · official $23.99 (match) · 345 history records