Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf189…8e47
politics · 253 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$18,995 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14,271 · open +$4,283
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40,890
Realized+$14,271
Unrealized+$4,283
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses187 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions19
Markets (closed)234 / 253
History coverage416d
Avg bet$3,823
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 19 History 234 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$446
14 days+$2,756
30 days+$4,528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 77¢ 99¢ $9,495 $12,165 +$2,670 (+28%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? No 69¢ 83¢ $4,855 $5,834 +$979 (+20%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? No 93¢ 94¢ $4,194 $4,221 +$27 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 91¢ 92¢ $3,578 $3,622 +$44 (+1%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 87¢ 90¢ $3,051 $3,140 +$89 (+3%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? No 88¢ 93¢ $2,812 $2,968 +$156 (+6%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? No 87¢ 92¢ $2,256 $2,410 +$154 (+7%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? No 88¢ 79¢ $1,822 $1,645 −$178 (-10%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in June? No 76¢ 97¢ $847 $1,083 +$236 (+28%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $891 $949 +$58 (+7%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? No 92¢ 97¢ $806 $851 +$45 (+6%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 92¢ 82¢ $646 $576 −$70 (-11%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $421 $455 +$34 (+8%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $246 $297 +$51 (+21%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $248 $268 +$20 (+8%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 30¢ 27¢ $148 $134 −$14 (-10%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in June? No 82¢ 98¢ $109 $132 +$22 (+20%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 82¢ 99¢ $81 $98 +$17 (+20%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 84¢ 63¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of May 25 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? No 29¢ 0¢ $833 $0 −$833 (-100%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May? No 53¢ 0¢ $529 $0 −$529 (-100%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of January 2026? No 43¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 10 $1,384 +$119 +9%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 10 $640 +$36 +6%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 09 $1,508 −$347 -23%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 09 $1,851 +$508 +28%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 07 $876 +$74 +8%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 05 $133 +$57 +43%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in June? Jun 05 $824 +$224 +27%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June? Jun 04 $363 −$6 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $19,300 +$230 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 30 $557 +$43 +8%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? May 30 $177 +$23 +13%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 30 $1,588 +$251 +16%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 30 $112 +$14 +12%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $98 in May? May 30 $55 +$4 +8%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May? May 30 $287 +$40 +14%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 30 $1,922 +$188 +10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May? May 30 $326 +$36 +11%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May? May 30 $368 +$55 +15%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May? May 30 $845 +$210 +25%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May? May 30 $516 +$133 +26%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May? May 30 $719 +$28 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 30 $1,771 +$245 +14%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 30 $2,099 +$69 +3%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May? May 30 $3,678 +$376 +10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May? May 30 $3,798 +$133 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May? May 30 $287 +$13 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May? May 29 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 29 $414 +$83 +20%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,250 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 28 $4,028 +$682 +17%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 28 $1,195 +$340 +28%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May? May 26 $151 +$71 +47%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May? May 26 $674 +$26 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $21,000 −$520 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May? May 15 $987 +$331 +34%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May? May 15 $539 −$529 -98%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $22,210 +$1,290 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $890 +$20 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May? May 06 $1,612 +$394 +24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $21,064 +$2,454 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $450 +$900 +200%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $3,600 +$800 +22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $27,104 +$1,710 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $2,945 +$588 +20%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $4 +$1 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $328 −$168 -51%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 07 $1,060 +$95 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 07 $7,072 −$4,662 -66%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $3,720 +$244 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 38% +$1,838
world 32% +$11,325
other 16% +$3,458
economics 12% +$889
tech 2% +$814
finance 1% +$232
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 91¢ $14 47m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 91¢ $341 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 79¢ $69 5h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? BUY No 76¢ $62 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 72¢ $347 16h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 87¢ $213 16h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1,475 18h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? BUY No 96¢ $445 18h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? BUY No 97¢ $67 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? BUY No 93¢ $130 19h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY No 96¢ $790 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? BUY No 93¢ $465 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? BUY No 93¢ $465 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 92¢ $368 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? BUY No 93¢ $465 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? BUY No 93¢ $335 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 92¢ $460 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 92¢ $460 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 92¢ $460 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 92¢ $460 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 92¢ $460 19h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY No 96¢ $48 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 92¢ $46 20h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 92¢ $46 20h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1,084 20h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 93¢ $745 20h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? BUY No 88¢ $1,760 20h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 89¢ $400 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 89¢ $45 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 90¢ $9 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +11.7% +1.0% 83% 33% -3.2%
≤30d 38 +52.9% +38.3% 82% 45% -5.3%
≤90d 46 +50.4% +36.1% 85% 50% -2.9%
all 234 +29.8% +17.4% 80% 24% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.4% 24% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here +6.2% 16% -16.9%
15% -4.1% 10% -25.0%
20% -13.5% 9% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,890.13 · official $40,858.91 (match) · 3500 history records