Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf188…4a83 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$351 (-47%) realized −$335 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$124
14 days−$124
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$364
other 12% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-58.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -66.9% -70.1% 0% 0% -60.1%
≤30d 8 -55.9% -60.1% 12% 12% -58.0%
≤90d 17 -54.3% -58.7% 12% 12% -55.8%
all 17 -54.3% -58.7% 12% 12% -55.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.7% 12% -55.8%
10% -62.6% 12% -60.0%
15% -66.2% 12% -63.9%
20% -69.5% 12% -67.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$29 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$335
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage59d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Michele Ribecai 23¢ 10¢ $28 $12 −$16 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $31 −$11 -35%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $17 −$6 -35%
ITF Samobor: Antonio Voljavec vs Matic Dimic Jun 17 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $89 −$5 -6%
ITF Bucharest: Thea Marcu vs Rose Marie Nijkamp Jun 17 $39 −$36 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $16 −$15 -95%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play- May 31 $9 +$7 +82%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ASTRAL (BO3) - LORGAR RANKINGS Playoff Apr 25 $30 −$29 -97%
Rome: Dalibor Svrcina vs Jacopo Vasami Apr 25 $90 −$73 -81%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 25 $154 −$91 -59%
Madrid Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Iva Jovic Apr 25 $31 +$79 +258%
Madrid Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 24 $18 −$18 -98%
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin Apr 24 $49 −$30 -60%
Abidjan: Sebastian Gima vs Niels Visker Apr 21 $6 −$6 -98%
GV CD San José vs. Club Aurora: O/U 1.5 Apr 21 $32 −$24 -74%
Savannah: Andres Andrade vs Oliver Crawford Apr 21 $30 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta BUY Michele Ribecai 23¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 39¢ $11 2d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Zizou Bergs 19¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Rooster 52¢ $0 2d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 28¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Rooster 56¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 63¢ $20 2d
ITF Samobor: Antonio Voljavec vs Matic Dimic BUY Matic Dimic 28¢ $19 2d
ITF Samobor: Antonio Voljavec vs Matic Dimic BUY Matic Dimic 26¢ $48 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $84 2d
ITF Bucharest: Thea Marcu vs Rose Marie Nijkamp SELL Thea Marcu $2 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $89 2d
ITF Bucharest: Thea Marcu vs Rose Marie Nijkamp BUY Thea Marcu 37¢ $39 2d
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jesper de Jong $1 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic SELL Belinda Bencic $1 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic BUY Belinda Bencic 36¢ $16 19d
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play- SELL Atreides 92¢ $17 19d
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play- BUY Atreides 50¢ $9 19d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ASTRAL (BO3) - LORGAR RANKINGS Playoff BUY ASTRAL 14¢ $30 54d
Rome: Dalibor Svrcina vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 16¢ $30 54d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY 100 Thieves 25¢ $30 54d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY 100 Thieves 19¢ $15 54d
Rome: Dalibor Svrcina vs Jacopo Vasami SELL Jacopo Vasami $16 54d
Rome: Dalibor Svrcina vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 23¢ $60 54d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs SELL 100 Thieves 26¢ $62 54d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY 100 Thieves 46¢ $109 54d
Madrid Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Iva Jovic SELL Leylah Fernandez 91¢ $109 54d
Madrid Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Iva Jovic BUY Leylah Fernandez 25¢ $31 55d
Madrid Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti BUY Hubert Hurkacz 41¢ $18 56d
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin SELL Sofia Kenin $20 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.17 · official $12.17 (match) · 37 history records