Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf187…753d crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$90 (-4%) realized −$48 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%24W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day73.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$252
other 15% +$54
sports 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +16.0% +4.9% 46% 38% -13.1%
≤30d 52 +16.0% +4.9% 46% 38% -13.1%
≤90d 52 +16.0% +4.9% 46% 38% -13.1%
all 52 +16.0% +4.9% 46% 38% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.9% 38% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -5.1% 38% -21.4%
15% -14.3% 33% -29.0%
20% -22.7% 31% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$31 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses24 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day73.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 38¢ 6¢ $50 $9 −$41 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$36 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$31 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$4 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $81 +$5 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 25 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $35 −$2 -7%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 25 $24 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $17 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $209 −$183 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$78 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $111 +$72 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $136 +$52 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $161 +$17 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $109 +$56 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $83 +$27 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $155 +$45 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $88 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $78 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $47 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $56 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 62¢ $85 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $35 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 89¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $17 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $209 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $182 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.50 · official $56.56 · 110 history records