Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf186…8e88 crypto 1157 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$537 (+3%) realized +$536 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate92%1068W / 87L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day98.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$175
14 days+$290
30 days+$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 364 +3.1% -6.8% 93% 29% -6.8%
≤30d 1155 +2.0% -7.7% 92% 32% -7.6%
≤90d 1155 +2.0% -7.7% 92% 32% -7.6%
all 1155 +2.0% -7.7% 92% 32% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 32% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 4% -16.5%
15% -24.6% 1% -24.5%
20% -32.0% 1% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$536
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1068 / 87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1155 / 1157
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day98.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 89¢ 94¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.22 · official $10.38 (match) · 3500 history records