Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F1 0xf186…7a27 crypto 349 markets active 2d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%197W / 152L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$474
14 days−$474
30 days−$765
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -6.0% -15.0% 61% 61% -11.7%
≤30d 131 -9.9% -18.4% 59% 59% -12.9%
≤90d 349 -10.0% -18.6% 56% 54% -12.1%
all 349 -10.0% -18.6% 56% 54% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 54% -12.1%
10% -26.4% 43% -20.5%
15% -33.5% 25% -28.2%
20% -40.0% 13% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$65 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses197 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)349 / 349
History coverage48d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 349 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $91 −$88 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $65 +$26 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $107 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$26 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$72 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$90 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $92 +$38 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $93 +$21 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $55 +$41 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $95 −$85 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $93 +$56 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$82 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$60 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $92 +$28 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$50 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $94 +$22 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $93 −$85 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $122 +$54 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $92 −$90 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $287 −$280 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $309 +$130 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $206 −$195 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $410 +$155 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $91 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $91 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $65 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $64 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $61 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $62 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $47 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $47 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $26 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $22 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $22 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $13 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $12 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $9 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $36 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $32 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $14 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $163 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $119 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $123 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $151 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 987 history records