Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:07:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf184…a1e6 weather 460 markets active 11h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+3%) realized +$25 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%112W / 341L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$22
14 days−$21
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$43
sports 0% −$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -40.7% -46.4% 21% 19% -46.9%
≤30d 239 -23.9% -31.2% 27% 24% -25.9%
≤90d 453 -15.4% -23.5% 25% 23% -13.9%
all 453 -15.4% -23.5% 25% 23% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 23% -13.9%
10% -30.8% 21% -22.2%
15% -37.5% 20% -29.7%
20% -43.6% 19% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses112 / 341
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)453 / 460
History coverage83d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 453 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 46¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+364%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+340%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 217 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +266%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +234%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +173%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.31 · official $11.12 (match) · 1133 history records