Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

F1 0xf184…d472 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$100 (+7%) realized +$134 · open −$34

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate60%15W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day37.8pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit93%portable

Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-3.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+6.6%	-3.5%	60%	44%	-8.9%
≤30d	25	+6.6%	-3.5%	60%	44%	-8.9%
≤90d	25	+6.6%	-3.5%	60%	44%	-8.9%
all	25	+6.6%	-3.5%	60%	44%	-8.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover37.8 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-3.5%	44%	-8.9%
10% ← realistic here	-12.8%	40%	-17.6%
15%	-21.2%	40%	-25.6%
20%	-28.9%	40%	-32.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

27% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +25% → late -10% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.03 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$282

Realized+$134

Unrealized−$34

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses15 / 10

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions5

Markets (closed)25 / 30

History coverage1d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day37.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	58¢	84¢	$159	$229	+$70 (+44%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	43¢	10¢	$67	$16	−$51 (-76%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Over	54¢	21¢	$37	$14	−$23 (-61%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	43¢	16¢	$31	$11	−$20 (-64%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Yes	48¢	24¢	$21	$10	−$11 (-51%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)	Jun 19	$16	−$16	-100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs	Jun 19	$22	−$22	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$123	+$74	+61%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$106	−$106	-100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$22	+$19	+90%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$29	−$13	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET	Jun 19	$15	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET	Jun 19	$501	+$7	+2%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert	Jun 19	$35	+$26	+73%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz	Jun 19	$34	−$34	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET	Jun 19	$46	$0	+1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET	Jun 19	$5	$0	+1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$18	+$15	+83%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$35	+$40	+114%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$32	−$32	-100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$9	+$17	+188%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 19	$9	−$9	-100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$19	+$25	+134%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$22	+$17	+76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$35	+$19	+54%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$14	+$3	+18%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$18	−$18	-100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$13	+$15	+114%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Jun 18	$2	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$161	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$22	2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$31	2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	43¢	$33	2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	43¢	$35	2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	54¢	$38	2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	29¢	$16	2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$22	4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$70	4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	52¢	$22	5h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	47¢	$22	5h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	35¢	$16	5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$29	5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$32	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$15	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$86	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$62	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$86	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$57	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$57	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$57	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$51	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$46	9h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$52	11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$53	11h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Ben Shelton	66¢	$34	12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$5	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$46	15h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$32	25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	34¢	$9	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.62 · official $281.62 (match) · 69 history records