Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F1 0xf181…ab15 other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$26
politics 23% −$7
economics 6% −$2
world 4% −$1
sports 3% +$16
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.4% -39.8% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 99 -1.1% -10.5% 11% 8% -9.6%
all 100 -1.1% -10.5% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 8% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 8% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 7% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage92d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $157 $157 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $309 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 01 $146 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $278 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $260 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $513 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $269 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $272 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $275 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $513 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $278 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $282 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $540 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $519 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $284 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $257 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $824 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $279 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $287 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $287 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $314 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $265 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $280 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $3 4d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $58 5d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $58 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $157 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 10d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 10d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 12d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 13d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 16d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 16d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 17d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 18d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 20d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 20d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 20d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.11 · official $281.11 (match) · 322 history records