Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:05:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf180…3b6c sports 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (971 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$263 (+9%) realized +$326 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%25W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day971.0pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$461
other 7% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (971 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-51.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -46.2% -51.3% 29% 24% -37.3%
≤30d 86 -46.2% -51.3% 29% 24% -37.3%
≤90d 86 -46.2% -51.3% 29% 24% -37.3%
all 86 -46.2% -51.3% 29% 24% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover971.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.3% 24% -37.3%
10% ← realistic here -56.0% 19% -43.3%
15% -60.2% 15% -48.8%
20% -64.1% 12% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$510
Realized+$326
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 61
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions47
Markets (closed)86 / 134
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day971.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 69¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 75¢ 72¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 32¢ 36¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+11%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 48¢ 44¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Cabo Verde 22¢ 20¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-8%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 26¢ 22¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-14%)
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Nicolas Mejia 51¢ 71¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 65¢ 62¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Nikola Bartunkova 31¢ 68¢ $6 $13 +$7 (+124%)
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Yulia Starodubtseva 40¢ 88¢ $6 $13 +$7 (+120%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 24¢ 24¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohankova Rebeka Masarova 75¢ 84¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Beatriz Haddad Maia 79¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Over 36¢ 38¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 56¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Flavio Cobolli 43¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 43¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Cabo Verde 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Sebastian Ofner 68¢ 83¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+21%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Under 83¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $20 −$10 -50%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $18 −$3 -16%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $8 −$3 -32%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $8 −$2 -20%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $12 −$2 -15%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $16 −$8 -49%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $18 −$10 -55%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $17 +$5 +29%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $10 −$5 -53%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $20 −$5 -26%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $18 −$8 -42%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $19 −$8 -43%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $14 −$3 -24%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $14 −$10 -70%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $15 −$6 -38%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $27 −$4 -15%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$74 +145%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 +$2 +28%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $18 −$4 -22%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $76 −$20 -26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $45 +$87 +195%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $60 +$36 +60%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$30 -59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $55 −$25 -45%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $43 −$1 -3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $48 −$19 -40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +47%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $27 −$9 -33%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 −$14 -47%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $44 −$14 -31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $27 +$10 +38%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 +$11 +72%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 +$4 +24%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $27 −$18 -67%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $37 −$30 -79%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $43 −$30 -70%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$17 +56%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$9 -36%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 15 $32 −$23 -73%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $38 −$15 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Henrique Rocha 54¢ $4 0m
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 55¢ $3 11m
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Gauthier Onclin 25¢ $1 13m
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 61¢ $2 17m
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 61¢ $4 17m
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 61¢ $4 17m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 79¢ $4 19m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 79¢ $2 19m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 79¢ $4 19m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Sachia Vickery 19¢ $2 23m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $4 23m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $4 26m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $2 26m
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 32¢ $4 26m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan BUY Rebeka Masarova 88¢ $2 27m
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 76¢ $3 27m
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina SELL Dalibor Svrcina 96¢ $10 27m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 98¢ $11 27m
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 76¢ $4 28m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Laurent Lokoli 24¢ $1 31m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Laurent Lokoli 24¢ $1 31m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Laurent Lokoli 24¢ $1 31m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Laurent Lokoli 24¢ $1 31m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Laurent Lokoli 24¢ $1 31m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Laurent Lokoli 24¢ $1 31m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Laurent Lokoli 24¢ $1 31m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Laurent Lokoli 24¢ $1 32m
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 43¢ $2 32m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Raul Brancaccio 39¢ $3 32m
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 78¢ $2 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $509.85 · official $509.89 (match) · 981 history records