Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F1 0xf180…a062 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL −$230 (-7%) realized −$228 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%31W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$296
14 days−$136
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$336
sports 48% +$196
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +15.7% +4.7% 52% 48% +2.5%
≤30d 54 +25.4% +13.5% 57% 56% -13.7%
≤90d 54 +25.4% +13.5% 57% 56% -13.7%
all 54 +25.4% +13.5% 57% 56% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.5% 56% -13.7%
10% +2.6% 44% -22.0%
15% -7.3% 37% -29.5%
20% -16.4% 31% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$40 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$228
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses31 / 23
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions7
Markets (closed)54 / 61
History coverage19d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $135 $134 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $173 −$103 -60%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $232 +$114 +49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $243 −$171 -71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$60 +20%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $196 −$40 -20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $175 +$166 +95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$57 +111%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $261 +$3 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $341 −$73 -22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $168 +$139 +83%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $81 +$87 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 +$41 +102%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 +$11 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $14 +$3 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 07 $59 −$59 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $36 +$23 +64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 06 $415 −$410 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 +$10 +982%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $36 −$18 -49%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 +$3 +275%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $19 +$3 +13%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $3 −$3 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 32m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $72 55m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $55 57m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $113 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $252 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $259 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $88 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $88 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $131 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $71 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $203 5h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $40 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 20¢ $0 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 13¢ $13 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $30 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $39 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $341 34h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $155 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $108 35h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $173 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 93¢ $205 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 96¢ $59 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $261 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 73¢ $268 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.60 · official $224.60 (match) · 135 history records