Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf17f…695e crypto 315 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+1%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%307W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$24
finance 1% +$1
sports 1% +$2
other 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 314 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 314 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 314 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -9.0%
all 314 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 0% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses307 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)314 / 315
History coverage7d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.77 · official $14.77 (match) · 635 history records