Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:28:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F1 0xf17f…b388 other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,341 (-30%) realized −$3,337 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%21W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$147
14 days−$147
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$3,282
crypto 2% +$16
world 0% −$36
economics 0% −$32
sports 0% −$4
weather 0% −$12
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -25.7% -32.8% 41% 41% -21.3%
≤30d 22 -25.7% -32.8% 41% 41% -21.3%
≤90d 22 -25.7% -32.8% 41% 41% -21.3%
all 69 -36.0% -42.1% 30% 28% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.1% 28% -37.1%
10% -47.6% 25% -43.1%
15% -52.7% 25% -48.6%
20% -57.3% 20% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$80 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$3,337
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage195d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $61 +$10 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $27 +$34 +124%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$51 +51%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $131 −$130 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 +$42 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$145 +291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $62 +$40 +65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $39 −$38 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $63 +$39 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $37 −$36 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 16 $5,438 −$1,885 -35%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 16 $3,248 −$994 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 06 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 06 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 05 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 05 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 05 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 05 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 05 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 05 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 04 $5 +$12 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 03 $5 +$7 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 03 $5 +$3 +54%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 30 $714 −$143 -20%
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 23 $30 −$28 -93%
Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jan 18 $100 −$57 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $70 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $61 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $27 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $33 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $67 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $42 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $39 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $62 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $63 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $29 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.25 · official $67.08 (match) · 140 history records