Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F1 0xf17d…c3d3 crypto 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$858 (+2%) realized +$938 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate83%136W / 28L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$347
14 days−$475
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$275
other 9% +$225
politics 6% −$115
tech 4% +$244
culture 1% +$34
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -15.8% -23.8% 40% 40% -28.3%
≤30d 43 -5.0% -14.0% 77% 23% -10.9%
≤90d 85 -2.8% -12.0% 82% 24% -8.7%
all 164 -4.1% -13.2% 83% 23% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 23% -7.9%
10% -21.5% 11% -16.7%
15% -29.1% 5% -24.7%
20% -36.0% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$76 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized+$938
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses136 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)164 / 167
History coverage255d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $300 $218 −$82 (-27%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $85 $88 +$3 (+3%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$79 -78%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$65 +129%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $118 +$51 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $105 +$12 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $725 −$12 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $257 −$154 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$16 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $105 −$71 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $52 +$4 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $201 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,213 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $101 −$82 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $535 +$155 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $448 −$260 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $301 +$15 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $308 +$181 +59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $103 −$58 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $217 +$29 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $645 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $112 −$110 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $744 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30? May 31 $201 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $201 +$9 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $192 +$14 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $600 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $673 +$27 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 25? May 26 $669 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 23? May 25 $666 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 22? May 23 $101 +$24 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 20? May 21 $202 +$33 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 20? May 21 $301 +$9 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 19? May 20 $525 +$75 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $101 +$8 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 18? May 19 $329 +$87 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? May 18 $20 +$9 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $334 +$76 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 14? May 15 $287 +$58 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $242 −$174 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $451 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $28 41m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $22 47m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $58 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 43¢ $51 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $169 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $118 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 89¢ $105 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 67¢ $54 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 26¢ $52 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 72¢ $389 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 26¢ $52 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 59¢ $257 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 34¢ $104 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $283 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 27¢ $34 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $100 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $52 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $100 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 94¢ $100 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 94¢ $783 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 80¢ $41 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 18¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.23 · official $314.23 (match) · 401 history records