Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf17a…7b1f
crypto · 28 markets active 3d ago
0.0score
−$4,288 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20,157 · open +$15,868
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$89,182
Realized−$20,157
Unrealized+$15,868
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)15 / 28
History coverage88d
Avg bet$5,596
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 13 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7,609
14 days+$16,299
30 days−$20,664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 65¢ 80¢ $51,951 $63,599 +$11,648 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 67¢ 86¢ $17,769 $22,741 +$4,972 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 69¢ 94¢ $1,649 $2,239 +$590 (+36%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 45¢ 10¢ $1,700 $358 −$1,342 (-79%)
Will Valve remove Nuke from the Map Pool? No 91¢ 98¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Valve remove Inferno from the Map Pool? No 92¢ 96¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? Yes $16 $14 −$2 (-15%)
Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes $13 $6 −$7 (-53%)
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? $60k 60¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? No 53¢ $1,060 $0 −$1,060 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? No 60¢ $777 $0 −$777 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? No 64¢ $285 $0 −$285 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $8,099 −$7,686 -95%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playof Jun 04 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $22,096 +$23,891 +108%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $45,240 −$36,678 -81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? May 16 $292 −$285 -98%
Will Valve remove Dust 2 from the Map Pool? May 03 $100 −$27 -27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 03 $1,220 +$3,122 +256%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 07 $800 −$777 -97%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Apr 05 $1,200 +$138 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Apr 05 $200 +$18 +9%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March? Mar 22 $799 −$799 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $200 −$7 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 15 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$3,705
other 1% −$676
sports 0% +$96
economics 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 78¢ $2,373 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 79¢ $2,414 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 79¢ $2,395 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 79¢ $2,399 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 59¢ $1,827 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 59¢ $1,787 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 58¢ $1,751 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 56¢ $101 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 54¢ $1,613 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 55¢ $1,600 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 46¢ $457 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 45¢ $457 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 45¢ $426 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 44¢ $426 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? SELL No $412 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 76¢ $58 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 76¢ $1,505 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 74¢ $1,487 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 74¢ $1,507 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 33¢ $670 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 33¢ $631 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 75¢ $1,526 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 31¢ $608 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 29¢ $609 7d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 85¢ $100 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 66¢ $61 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 67¢ $1,350 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 66¢ $1,331 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 67¢ $1,351 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 68¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.3% -18.0% 50% 50% -93.5%
≤30d 6 -12.4% -20.8% 50% 50% -34.1%
≤90d 15 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 33% -31.9%
all 15 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 33% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 33% -31.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 20% -38.4%
15% -37.4% 20% -44.3%
20% -43.5% 20% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89,182.34 · official $89,182.34 (match) · 190 history records