Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf179…fd27 other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$274 (-10%) realized −$252 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate40%35W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days−$288
14 days−$288
30 days−$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$369
world 32% +$173
finance 9% −$64
sports 6% −$32
politics 4% −$9
crypto 2% −$7
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -14.1% -22.3% 39% 26% -20.9%
≤30d 88 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 26% -19.8%
≤90d 88 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 26% -19.8%
all 88 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 26% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 26% -19.8%
10% -31.4% 20% -27.5%
15% -38.0% 16% -34.5%
20% -44.1% 11% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$252
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses35 / 53
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)88 / 98
History coverage29d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? Yes 73¢ 71¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 79¢ 69¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $90 −$2 -2%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 17 $10 −$2 -16%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $30 −$3 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 17 $70 $0 -1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $315 −$188 -60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$9 +37%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027? Jun 16 $103 −$47 -45%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $240 +$126 +53%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -34%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $30 −$21 -69%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 15 $21 −$9 -44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $110 −$5 -5%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $21 −$17 -82%
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +89%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +92%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $30 +$33 +110%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$2 -9%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $88 1h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 17¢ $9 4h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL South Africa 72¢ $20 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 48¢ $28 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $49 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 89¢ $70 4h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $125 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $90 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 15h
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $15 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 19h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 79¢ $202 21h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $103 22h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $56 22h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027? BUY Yes 46¢ $103 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 25h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 73¢ $20 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 25h
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr BUY Yes 73¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.31 · official $168.32 (match) · 227 history records