Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

F1 0xf178…48a8 other 11 markets active 3h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$992 (-38%) realized +$247 · open −$1,239

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$238per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$812now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$127

7 days+$142

14 days+$144

30 days+$144

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-6.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+4.1%	-5.8%	75%	75%	+17.9%
≤30d	5	+3.9%	-6.0%	80%	60%	+16.1%
≤90d	5	+3.9%	-6.0%	80%	60%	+16.1%
all	5	+3.9%	-6.0%	80%	60%	+16.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.0%	60%	+16.1%
10%	-15.0%	40%	+5.0%
15%	-23.2%	40%	-5.2%
20%	-30.7%	20%	-14.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 79% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$18 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.98 per $1 lost it wins $8.98

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$812

Realized+$247

Unrealized−$1,239

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions6

Markets (closed)5 / 11

History coverage10d

Avg bet$238

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$1,058	$477	−$581 (-55%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$741	$189	−$552 (-74%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$121	$60	−$60 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$84	$55	−$29 (-34%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$25	$18	−$7 (-26%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$23	$11	−$11 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$292	+$127	+44%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$19	−$18	-97%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$19	+$11	+57%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$141	+$22	+16%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 11	$37	+$1	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$125	2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$166	2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$29	2d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$16	2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$16	2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$22	2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$21	2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$12	2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$10	2d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$448	4d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1	5d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$158	5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$163	5d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$31	5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$165	5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$206	5d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$18	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $811.76 · official $811.76 (match) · 56 history records