Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf175…f09a politics 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,544 (-1%) realized −$1,544 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,229per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$150
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$61
politics 39% −$82
sports 5% −$1,620
economics 4% −$16
world 2% −$3
tech 2% −$3
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 55 -4.1% -13.2% 9% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 138 -2.3% -11.6% 10% 7% -10.4%
all 141 -2.2% -11.6% 10% 7% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 7% -10.4%
10% -20.0% 7% -18.9%
15% -27.7% 5% -26.8%
20% -34.8% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,691) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$15 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$1,544
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage92d
Avg bet$1,229
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $2,007 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $2,531 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,252 −$3 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,830 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,197 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $711 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $58 −$58 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,441 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $721 −$1 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $41 +$51 +124%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $313 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $370 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,761 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,133 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,932 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,126 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 26 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $305 $0 -0%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $89 +$80 +90%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $52 +$34 +65%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $506 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $224 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $225 5h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $256 7h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $257 9h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $583 28h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $584 30h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $458 32h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $459 33h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $520 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $520 3d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $506 3d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $507 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $545 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $546 3d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $430 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $431 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $487 5d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $488 5d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $512 6d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $513 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $469 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $469 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $464 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $464 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $488 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $489 8d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $406 9d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $407 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $486 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $487 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.97 · official $95.97 (match) · 440 history records