Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf172…4da7 politics 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+0%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 115L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$13
politics 40% −$13
sports 6% +$92
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 113 +0.3% -9.3% 5% 4% -9.6%
all 125 +6.5% -3.6% 8% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 7% -9.3%
10% -12.8% 6% -18.0%
15% -21.3% 5% -25.9%
20% -29.0% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×23.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 115
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage116d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $273 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $266 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $192 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $247 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $301 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $292 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $258 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $178 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $411 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $230 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $416 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $180 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $191 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $172 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $178 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $200 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $182 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $215 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $357 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 01 $244 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $171 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $236 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $236 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 5h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 8h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 41h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 43h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 45h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 46h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 46h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 8d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 11d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 12d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $41 16d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $41 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $192 17d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 23d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 24d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 28d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 390 history records