Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:12:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F1 0xf170…e8a7 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$117 (+32%) realized +$120 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$159
14 days+$159
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$125
tech 6% +$1
sports 3% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +73.7% +57.2% 82% 73% +53.8%
≤30d 11 +73.7% +57.2% 82% 73% +53.8%
≤90d 11 +73.7% +57.2% 82% 73% +53.8%
all 11 +73.7% +57.2% 82% 73% +53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.2% 73% +53.8%
10% +42.1% 64% +39.1%
15% +28.4% 64% +25.6%
20% +15.8% 45% +13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$15 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.24 per $1 lost it wins $6.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$120
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage7d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $51 $47 −$4 (-7%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $57 +$45 +78%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $53 +$37 +69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $12 +$29 +247%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $13 +$51 +406%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17 +$16 +92%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9 +$4 +49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 +$3 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$3 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $68 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $46 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $51 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 29h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $17 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $18 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $14 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.16 · official $137.16 (match) · 27 history records