Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf16f…9f16 crypto 627 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5,591 (-0%) realized −$5,264 · open −$327
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%588W / 16L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,086per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$22,696now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$138
14 days+$302
30 days+$1,607
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$2,803
other 10% +$909
world 2% −$9,798
tech 2% +$304
finance 1% +$9
politics 0% +$60
sports 0% +$9
economics 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -3.4% -12.6% 96% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 94 +0.9% -8.7% 95% 4% -8.8%
≤90d 190 -0.4% -9.9% 95% 4% -11.3%
all 604 +0.5% -9.0% 97% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 3% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$2,991) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$1,259 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$22,696
Realized−$5,264
Unrealized−$327
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses588 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions23
Markets (closed)604 / 627
History coverage301d
Avg bet$2,086
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 604 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,994 $2,991 −$3 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,354 $2,366 +$13 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,990 $1,991 +$1 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,950 $1,974 +$24 (+1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,955 $1,954 −$1 (-0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,417 $1,429 +$12 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $971 $977 +$6 (+1%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $975 $976 +$2 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 97¢ 96¢ $972 $957 −$14 (-1%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $967 $957 −$9 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $953 $954 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 89¢ 90¢ $880 $894 +$13 (+1%)
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 85¢ $800 $850 +$50 (+6%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 96¢ 82¢ $960 $824 −$136 (-14%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21? No 95¢ 98¢ $475 $492 +$17 (+4%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $493 $483 −$10 (-2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $474 $479 +$5 (+1%)
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 92¢ $400 $458 +$58 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 89¢ $182 $178 −$4 (-2%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $158 $169 +$11 (+7%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $160 $152 −$8 (-5%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $93 $97 +$4 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 10¢ $450 $93 −$357 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $288 +$12 +4%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,066 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,336 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 16? Jun 16 $230 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,892 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $4,973 +$6 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 15? Jun 16 $361 +$3 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Solana dip to $50 June 8-14? Jun 15 $927 +$6 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $4,988 +$12 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,096 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $994 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,018 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? Jun 15 $940 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14? Jun 15 $4,960 +$60 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $3,805 +$52 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? Jun 13 $997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $3,311 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $498 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 12 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,721 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? Jun 12 $2,291 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? Jun 12 $3,244 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $197 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $9,981 +$19 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 8? Jun 10 $221 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $233 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? Jun 10 $319 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $497 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $490 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $612 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,469 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,509 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,994 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 8? Jun 10 $2,347 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 9? Jun 10 $4,345 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $490 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $590 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $804 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,450 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,928 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $9,991 +$9 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7? Jun 08 $498 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $988 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1,038 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1,196 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1,496 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,705 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $250 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,996 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $953 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY No 98¢ $213 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $1,990 23h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21? BUY No 95¢ $475 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY No 98¢ $1,747 30h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,065 31h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $230 31h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY No 98¢ $394 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $907 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $361 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $3,066 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,892 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,336 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $864 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1,994 4d
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $493 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1,018 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $2,994 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $878 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $114 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $16 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $62 4d
Will Solana reach $80 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1,096 4d
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? BUY No 96¢ $960 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $598 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,695.83 · official $22,694.86 (match) · 2928 history records