Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf16e…43af sports 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (177 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,618 (-7%) realized −$5,618 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,013per market
Trades / day176.9pace
Fees−$2,681est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$6,820
other 7% +$460
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (177 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -23.1% -30.4% 40% 8% -17.7%
≤30d 40 -23.1% -30.4% 40% 8% -17.7%
≤90d 40 -23.1% -30.4% 40% 8% -17.7%
all 40 -23.1% -30.4% 40% 8% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover176.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 8% -17.7%
10% -37.1% 2% -25.5%
15% ← realistic here -43.1% 2% -32.7%
20% -48.7% 2% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,586) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$341 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,618
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$2,681
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2,013
Trades / day176.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Under 33¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $61 −$21 -34%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1,081 +$31 +3%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1,713 −$357 -21%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $50 −$20 -41%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $203 −$144 -71%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $2,995 −$2,537 -85%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $1,997 +$21 +1%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $80 −$5 -6%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1,997 −$295 -15%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1,997 +$256 +13%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $1,997 −$262 -13%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5,979 −$469 -8%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $51 +$2 +4%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $2,995 −$337 -11%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $2,995 +$80 +3%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,997 −$907 -45%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $3,252 −$74 -2%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $6,830 −$402 -6%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $3,002 −$47 -2%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $472 −$70 -15%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2,780 +$186 +7%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $2,023 +$271 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5,929 +$460 +8%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2,203 +$82 +4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $741 +$32 +4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $24 −$5 -21%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1,327 −$55 -4%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $2,444 −$500 -20%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5,950 −$425 -7%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $27 −$2 -9%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $32 +$2 +6%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $3,001 +$109 +4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $3,001 −$118 -4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $3,001 +$114 +4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,148 −$126 -11%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $3,001 +$175 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 16¢ $41 3m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $0 3m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $28 3m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $2 3m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $0 3m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $31 3m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $1,406 37m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $22 37m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $22 37m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $36 37m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $5 37m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $8 37m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $750 38m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $17 38m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $734 38m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 57¢ $1,404 39m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $18 39m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $3 39m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $5 40m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $760 40m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $760 40m
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $211 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $235 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $0 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $488 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $100 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $55 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $100 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $15 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.00 (match) · 571 history records