Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf16d…bd83
crypto · 89 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$58 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$59 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses61 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage44d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 59¢ 70¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -6.0% -14.9% 73% 27% -13.1%
≤30d 61 -5.4% -14.5% 74% 28% -12.5%
≤90d 88 -8.1% -16.9% 69% 23% -15.0%
all 88 -8.1% -16.9% 69% 23% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 23% -15.0%
10% -24.8% 15% -23.1%
15% -32.1% 5% -30.5%
20% -38.7% 1% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.66 · official $4.49 (match) · 3500 history records