Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F1 0xf16c…b224 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$494 (+23%) realized +$427 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$867now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$400
other 39% +$54
finance 12% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +21.6% +10.0% 100% 100% +10.0%
≤90d 4 +64.8% +49.1% 50% 50% +36.1%
all 6 +29.1% +16.8% 50% 50% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 50% +19.7%
10% +5.6% 17% +8.2%
15% -4.6% 17% -2.2%
20% -13.9% 17% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$48 · ×3.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.96 per $1 lost it wins $3.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$867
Realized+$427
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage100d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $100 $149 +$49 (+49%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $754 +$162 +22%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $13 −$13 -96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 08 $100 +$369 +369%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 08 $100 −$32 -32%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $100 −$100 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $255 +$39 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 100¢ $916 29d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 35d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 40d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $469 40d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 40d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the SELL Yes 20¢ $68 40d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 79d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY Yes 29¢ $100 94d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 94d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 97d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 97d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10? SELL Up 100¢ $294 99d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10? BUY Up 75¢ $10 99d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10? BUY Up 87¢ $245 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $867.11 · official $867.11 (match) · 24 history records