Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf16a…f999 crypto 1505 markets active 2d ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (163 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14,412 (+82%) realized +$14,412 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%915W / 589L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day162.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (163 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 875 +0.8% -8.8% 65% 45% -15.1%
≤30d 1504 +2.3% -7.4% 61% 46% -15.9%
≤90d 1504 +2.3% -7.4% 61% 46% -15.9%
all 1504 +2.3% -7.4% 61% 46% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover162.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 46% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 29% -23.9%
15% -24.4% 24% -31.3%
20% -31.8% 18% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14,412
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses915 / 589
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1504 / 1505
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day162.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1504 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records